Analysis ≠ Evidence

By Na'omi Allen
Mrs Allen is a disgruntled American veteran and this is her personal blog. She studies geopolitical phenomena, with a focus on countering contemporary Nazism.
 

This post was rolled from Twitter, with errors and Tweetspeak left intact. Join the conversation here.

Twitterverse (@girly_GRRRL) — I hate to think that it’s possible, but I think there’s a good chance that the USIC is basing their “intel” about Russia’s Ukraine invasion plans on a conspiracy theory that the Bild wrote. The Bild is a tabloid rag, on par with the US National Inquirer. kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/…

The Bild even says that there’s no evidence that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, but speculate about how, “… *if* they do, this is probably how they’re going to do it.”

WaPo’s piece about the planned Russian invasion echoes what the Bild wrote. It also states that the “analysis” is “based in part” on satellite photos showing Russian troop movements, which Ukraine officials say demonstrate “rehearsal” of an invasion. archive.is/mDfOe

Russia routinely runs military readiness exercises. This is nothing new. & every time they do, ppl speculate about how Russia is “staging for invasion”. What is new, is the way the exec branch is now acting like the war gossip is “credible intel”. washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…

The people who peddle this rubbish claim they want to deter war, but their speculation may serve, instead, as a self-fulfilling prophecy that ends up *provoking* war… especially since they advocate for us to respond to their fantasies with pre-emptive (first-strike) measures.

Unless the American people want to spend the next decade fighting another devastating global war, we must stop indulging NeoCon fantasies.