Unroll: Ukraine is not a legitimate state. #DonbassLivesMatter

By Na'omi Allen
Mrs Allen is a disgruntled American veteran and this is her personal blog. She studies geopolitical phenomena, with a focus on countering contemporary Nazism.
 

Originally published on Twitter:

In a recent speech to the UN, Joe Biden condemned Russian mobilization to East Ukraine and called upcoming Donbass referendums a “sham”. Our President shamelessly ignores the plight of Donbass. He pretends that Putin is “needlessly” defending the Donbass, even tho Ukrainian forces were bombing the hell out of them. Does Donbass not have the right to defend themselves?

I am not asking rhetorically. I really want to know why our president @POTUS @JoeBiden doesn’t believe that Donbass has a right to defend themselves.

Putin doesn’t just have the moral high ground in the fight against modern day Nazis. He also has legal standing for Russia’s SMO to protect Donbass and Russian soil. By hindering their right to self-defense, it’s our country that is in violation of international law right now.

Originally published on Twitter:

Timothy Snyder proposes that Donbass referendums should be referred to as “obscenity” and “element of war crime.” But I call their right to self-determination a matter of survival for East Ukrainians. #DonbassLivesMatter

Since 2014, we have been told that the reason why Ukraine refuses to recognize any referendum held by Donbass, is because they were occupied by Russia. The consensus is that it is illegal for any type of voting to happen in occupied territory…

… because those people would be under the threat of violence and would not be voting their conscience. This is something I used to believe… until realized that Russia was *not* “occupying” the Donbass all these years.

The Rus Fed military didn’t even have a meaningful presence in Donbass until this year. But today… even with their troops being there, it still shouldn’t be considered a military occupation…

According to international law, “… territory is considered occupied when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army.”

LDPR has not been placed under Rus Fed authority, or under the authority of the Russian military. LDPR leaders are in charge of their respective self-declared republics.

The Russian Federation is not hostile to these self-declared republics.

There is a Russian military presence, but it is there at the request of LDPR leaders. Russia’s boots on the ground there does not fit the legal definition of a military occupation.

If Professor Snyder were to look at the situation honestly, he would have to come to the same conclusion. Instead, he side-steps and claims that nobody should even try to argue the legality of a referendum. Of course… if they did, they would lose that legal argument.

He claims: We should not call it an “illegal” referendum, because doing so recognizes that a referendum is/will happen, and whatever happens should not be recognized as a referendum at all.

Rhetoric of Criminality: A persuasive argument that makes no sense and is not based on fact but convinces people of dumb shit. Aka, anything that comes out of Professor Snyder’s mouth lately.

An old argument that I haven’t seen raised this time around: They’d have to hold a referendum in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution, and what Donbass would be doing, doesn’t.

I used to believe this, too. Until I realized that Ukraine has not had a legitimate constitution since 2014.

Technically, Ukraine is no longer a legitimate state, and hasn’t been since the Euromaidan overthrew the government and illegally messed with their constitution (making changes to it, without holding a national referendum, which their former constitution required them to do).



Unroll: Ukraine is not winning.

Originally published on Twitter.

I agree w/ this. If you look at the conflict as if Ukraine is the real aggressor (they are), and examine their mission goals (regaining their 2013 territories), Ukraine is losing this war, big time.

Ukraine has failed to take back Crimea or the very small span of territory that Donbass “rebels” held. They’ve lost ALL but one small village in Lugansk Oblast, a huge swathe of Donetsk Oblast, and they lost control over two more oblasts (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia).

Pre-SMO Ukraine:


Ukraine, Today:


Plus, a new rebellion has started in Odessa Oblast (a prized territory that they previously were not in danger of losing)… and this rebellion has declared a manifesto that isn’t about secession or a desire for autonomy, but challenges the legitimacy of the Kiev regime.

Ukraine’s ruling regime really is *losing* this battle.

They should have implemented Minsk Accords. Had they done so, they would not have lost a single square foot of territory outside of Crimea. Not implementing Minsk was a stupid move.



Unroll: Rus Fed Mobilization in Donbass

Originally published on Twitter:

I’ve posted a transcript of Putin’s morning address [here].

  • The Russian Federation is mobilizing their experienced reservists for their Special Military Operation (SMO) in the Donbass, and they’re professionalizing the military ranks of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LDPR).
  • Besides Lugansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye Oblasts are added to objectives.
  • The FSB will also be investigating “volunteer” (paramilitary) battalions currently fighting for Donbass to ensure their legal status.

Why this matters:

Presently in Ukraine, military personnel from the Russian Federation consists of military contractors hired by the Russian military to carry out Special Ops (colloquially known as Wagner PMC), and paramilitary volunteers who operate independently of the Rus Fed military.

What Russia’s military mobilization means:

Besides deploying their regular military forces, this means that Russia will be shutting down extremists that their government recognizes as illegal paramilitary formations. It also means that extremist criminals from Russia who have self-exiled to Donbass and taken up arms in the Ukrainian Civil War will be purged from the LDPR ranks.

I am guessing now that some of these extremists could possibly switch sides, like they did when the FSB did a similar purge in 2014 and many members of the Eurasian Youth Union ended up fighting on the side of Ukraine’s Right Sector, forming the Saint Mary’s Battalion.

Russian Nazis and NazBols loathe Putin and have no loyalty to Putin’s Russia. Most Americans don’t understand this.

This is a really good academic study of the various paramilitary organizations that found a safe haven in Donbass before and during the civil war. They have not and do not operate in Donbass with Putin’s blessing or support from the Russian government: archive.ph/LT38P#selectio…

 

Anti-Putinists often bring up these groups as evidence of Russia’s support for fascist radicals in Donbass, but this is far from reality. These groups also want an armed revolution in Russia, to overthrow the Putin regime.

The difference between Russian and Ukrainian Nazis:

Russia treats their Nazis like criminals.

Ukraine deputizes their Nazis, created an entire military branch for them, and glorifies them as national heroes.

Originally published on Twitter:

The significance of Rus Fed professionalizing LDPR military forces should not be ignored by military analysts. Rogue militias are a problem on both sides of this conflict. It results in a lot of off-mission and counterproductive stunts, and sometimes even friendly fire skirmishes.

I see some of the retired Western generals and colonels talking smack about this Rus Fed move, as if it’s a bad thing that battalions would now have their hands tied because they won’t be allowed to act on their own initiative.

But IMO, a central command structure will make Donbass Allies more effective now, not only because everyone would be on the same page and there would be a more unified battle plan, but because it would improve communications and logistics tremendously.

I’m rooting for Donbass Allies in this fight, and so it suits me fine that pro-Ukraine analysts are dumb asses. But the fact that military analysis on our side looks more like a Mean Girl gossip clutch, rather than anything based on reality, is probably why we haven’t actually won any real battles in a long time. They keep underestimating the enemy, out of some false sense of superiority, as if all of the non-Europeans are still primitive savages who fight w/ wooden clubs.



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