Originally published on Twitter.

I agree w/ this. If you look at the conflict as if Ukraine is the real aggressor (they are), and examine their mission goals (regaining their 2013 territories), Ukraine is losing this war, big time.

The NATO propaganda machine gives you the impression that Russia is on the point of collapse. The impression you get from independent sources is the opposite, Ukraine is in desperate straits and Russia can step up its response at will.

— Stephen Chenery (@StephenXL5) September 21, 2022

Ukraine has failed to take back Crimea or the very small span of territory that Donbass “rebels” held. They’ve lost ALL but one small village in Lugansk Oblast, a huge swathe of Donetsk Oblast, and they lost control over two more oblasts (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia).

Pre-SMO Ukraine:

Ukraine, Today:

Plus, a new rebellion has started in Odessa Oblast (a prized territory that they previously were not in danger of losing)… and this rebellion has declared a manifesto that isn’t about secession or a desire for autonomy, but challenges the legitimacy of the Kiev regime.

Ukraine’s ruling regime really is *losing* this battle.

They should have implemented Minsk Accords. Had they done so, they would not have lost a single square foot of territory outside of Crimea. Not implementing Minsk was a stupid move.